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Supply shortage supports prices in Ealing as SDLT holiday ends

  • main chart
  • The most recent Rightmove and Zoopla House Price Indices both show more modest increases in the rate of UK annual house price growth. Rightmove recorded a rise of 0.8% in asking prices in June, taking the annual increase to 7.5%, compared with 6.7% in May. Zoopla's index, lagging a month behind, shows a similar 0.6% rise, up from 4.1% in April to 4.7% in May.

    Rightmove reports that the average asking price of a home in the UK is now £336,073, whilst Zoopla's valuation of the average UK house price is significantly lower at £229,300. Why such a significant difference this month? Zoopla calculates their prices on a range of data, including sold prices. Rightmove's figures, however, are based purely on asking prices and therefore reflect the current bullish market.

    Both reports comment that buyer demand is beginning to show signs of slowing, with many buyers having rushed to complete purchases before the phasing out of the stamp duty holiday from June 30. However, high levels of demand are continuing to be seen, with Zoopla reporting demand for homes worth over £250K to be 86% higher in May 2021 than in the same month in 2019. But the supply side continues to be constrained. Zoopla report that the total stock of homes is 24% lower over the first six months of 2021 compared with the 2020 average. According to Rightmove, the average estate agency now has only 17 properties on their books, down from 19 last month. This is bound to affect sales over the coming months, unless new properties come onto the market.

    The Zoopla report examines the increase in stamp duty bills brought about by record house prices. They report that an extra 1.8 million homes in England have now moved into the 5% stamp duty bracket (for homes worth £250K - £925K), at an average additional cost of £725 for a buyer after October 1. A further 100,000 homes have moved into the 10% tax bracket (for homes worth £925K- £1.5 million), with a resulting additional stamp duty bill of £6,100. Rightmove, however, comment that despite these extra costs, demand for homes worth over £500K remains very high, with sales up by 49% in May this year compared to May 2019.

    In the Ealing market, there continues to be a slight difference in price growth for flats compared with houses. Newly released data from HM Land Registry shows that prices of houses have grown by 4.9 per cent over the last five years, compared with 3.4 per cent for flats.

    Looking at the near term future, both Rightmove and Zoopla predict that prices will remain buoyed by the continuing supply shortage. They comment that the lack of housing stock, especially for family homes, will frustrate those looking to move to larger home, but there is confidence that 2021 will continue to be one of the busiest of the last decade.

"Prices of houses have grown by 4.9 per cent over the last five years, compared with 3.4 per cent for flats"

chart 1

Annual sales by house type

This chart shows the number of sales over the last few years. We've split it by major house type so you can see what impact each kind of property has had on the market. While there's nothing particularly surprising, given the nature of our area, it's nonetheless interesting to see how the patterns have changed over time.

House prices over time in our area

Prices in the local area change a lot on a quarterly basis. In this chart, we look at how the average price of properties on the market have changed over time. There's a lot of volatility but the overarching story it tells reflects the day-to-day reality.
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chart 3

How local people get to work in our area

How do you get into work every day? Well as you can probably see from this chart, you're in good company. Given the nature of our local area, there's no huge surprise in the pattern. However, what is interesting is how much of a reflection commuting patterns are of the local market.

What’s going on in the market?

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    in the last year
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    What’s the average price per square foot?

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    What’s the average price for a new home?

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Sales Market in

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By property type Apartments Terraced Semi-detached Detached
 

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Lettings Market in

What is the average rent for a house?

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