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Zoopla predict a shift in the balance of supply and demand in 2022 - what does this mean for Ealing?

  • main chart
  • The latest Nationwide house price index reports that in December 2021 annual price growth stood at 10.4%, up from 10 % in November. This makes annual price growth in 2021 the strongest since 2006. With a seasonally adjusted 1% rise in prices month on month, the average price of a house in the UK stood at £254,822, up £23,902 over the year.

    The most recent Zoopla HPI puts the average UK house price in December slightly lower at £240,800. According to their figures, this takes the annual UK house price growth to 7.1%, up 1% compared with the previous month. They comment that although prices are rising more slowly than during the peak in late summer, the strength of the market continues to push prices upwards.

    Zoopla note that although buyer demand was lower in the weeks before Christmas, as is always the case, there has also been the usual post-Christmas bounce-back. They predict that a desire to capitalise on the growth in equity that the vast majority of homeowners have experienced over the last twelve months should act as an incentive for those people who are contemplating a move. According to their research, new working patterns continue to be a significant factor in the decision to move home. However, they are in no doubt that the market will start to return to more normal conditions over the next year. They predict that supply of homes for sale will improve, although they will probably remain lower than the five-year average.

    Nationwide are also predicting that the housing market will slow in 2022, particularly if the Omicron variant has a negative effect on employment. They point out that with housing affordability having already deteriorated over the last 18 months, any further squeeze on household budgets could negatively affect people's ability to trade up the housing ladder. This will continue to be a particular problem for buyers in London, the South East and the South West as the regional affordability gap shows no sign of narrowing. Indeed, at 11.5%, the South West saw the largest annual price growth of any region in 2021 and the Outer South East area saw just slightly lower growth of 11.3%.

    The latest data from the Land Registry shows that the average price of a flat in Ealing is now £411,600. This compares with £808,400 for a terrace, £1,183,300 for a semi-detached home and £750,000 for a detached home. Overall, prices have increased by 207 percent in the last twenty years.

    Zoopla anticipate price growth will come in at around 3% in 2022 as transaction levels normalise and the demand/supply imbalance starts to improve. Nationwide don't put a figure on expected price growth but believe that people's changing housing preferences should continue to underpin market activity and will act as a counterbalance to increasing mortgage interest rates.

"Zoopla anticipate price growth will come in at around 3% in 2022 as transaction levels normalise"

chart 1

Nine month split of house and flat sales

We've used a stacked bar chart to show the relative proportion of flats and houses selling in the last nine months in our area. Due to the profile of the housing stock in the area, there's nothing too surprising here, but it's interesting to see how the different types of properties contribute to total sales levels.

Top 5% of properties over time

We wanted to show you the price movements of the top 5% of properties in the local market. This chart displays the main house types side-by-side so you can see how they sit relative to one another, and how they have changed over time.
chart 2
chart 3

Type of property

Property types are a handy measure of the shape of the market in a local area. For example, areas with lots of flats tend to be urban in character because there is huge pressure on land. A large number of detached homes means that the area is suburban and not very densely populated.

What’s going on in the market?

  • Average price for a home
    £
    in
  • How much have average prices changed?

    %
    in the last year
    %
    in the last 5 years

    What’s the average price per square foot?

    £ psf

    What’s the average price for a new home?

    £

Sales Market in

How many homes changed hands?

in the last year

Sales numbers have changed by

year-on-year

Average price in England & Wales

Average price in London

By property type Apartments Terraced Semi-detached Detached
 

Average price

Price change

last 12 months

Proportion of all sales

XX

Lettings Market in

What is the average rent for a house?

per month

What is the average rent for a flat?

per month

Rents have changed by

in the last 12 months

What is the average rental yield?

gross annual yield

What is the average age of local residents?

How old are first-time buyers on average?

What price point marks the top 5%?