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Prices in Ealing set to be supported by low supply in 2022

  • main chart
  • The Government's most recent ONS UK House Price Index shows that house prices rose by 11.8% in the year to September 2021, up from the August figure of 10.2%. This puts the average UK house price at £270,000, increasing £28,000 over the year. However, the report emphasises that these figures are likely to be revised once the ONS has access to updated data.

    The Zoopla UK House Price Index for the following month of October shows a much lower annual rate of price growth. They put house price inflation at 6.9% and calculated the value of the average UK house to be £240,000. Prices for houses continue to increase significantly faster than flats, with rises of 8.3% and 1.6%, respectively, reflecting the difference in stock availability.

    The ONS report comments that house prices in August and September were artificially affected by the rush to complete transactions before the conclusion of the Stamp Duty holiday at the end of September. The volume of sales this September was 68.4% higher than September 2020 and 67.7% higher than the previous month. The report also notes that, despite continuing to record the smallest annual growth in the UK for the tenth month in a row, at £507,000, the average price of a home in London remains substantially higher than all other regions of the country. In comparison, the North East has recorded house price inflation of over 13% in the year to October but the average price of a home in the region remains the lowest in the UK at £153,000.

    Zoopla believes that the current UK property market remains strong. They point out that, although there is a slight downward trend in price growth, the average rate of growth over the previous three months is the highest since 2014. The supply/demand imbalance remains, with demand running 28% higher than the five-year average and supply down by 40% compared to the same five-year average. However, there is a wider divergence between the supply of flats and houses. Whilst the five-year average for the supply of all types of houses is down by 50%, the figure is only 15% for flats. Zoopla believes this is partly due to the continued preference for larger homes outside of city centres.

    In the last year, there have been 467 sales in Ealing, which is equivalent to around 2.5 per cent of the total private housing stock changing hands over the period. Based on predictions from Zoopla, this figure could be closer to 2.1 in 2022.

    The outlook for supply should improve, according to Zoopla, once the holiday period is over. They predict house prices will rise by around 3% over next year as inflation and higher mortgage rates start to squeeze household budgets and affect buyer sentiment. However, they predict lower than usual levels of supply will continue to support prices in 2022.

"In the last year, there have been 467 sales in Ealing, which is equivalent to around 2.5 per cent of the total private housing stock"

chart 1

The proportion of sales by house type

For this month's market update, we've decided to take a look at what percentage of total sales each house type accounts for each quarter. Whilst it doesn't show the actual number of sales, it's very useful for seeing what each property type is contributing to the total level of transactions.

Top 5% of properties in the local area

We were interested in looking at the selling prices of the top 5% of properties in the local market. This chart displays the main house types side-by-side so you can see how they sit relative to one another.
chart 2
chart 3

Local tenure patterns

The tenure mix of properties really defines what makes the local market tick. This chart shows how many people own, rent privately and rent from the council or a housing association. It's very interesting to see how this changed between the last two census. In most, but not all of the country, private renting has increased substantially.

What’s going on in the market?

  • Average price for a home
    £
    in
  • How much have average prices changed?

    %
    in the last year
    %
    in the last 5 years

    What’s the average price per square foot?

    £ psf

    What’s the average price for a new home?

    £

Sales Market in

How many homes changed hands?

in the last year

Sales numbers have changed by

year-on-year

Average price in England & Wales

Average price in London

By property type Apartments Terraced Semi-detached Detached
 

Average price

Price change

last 12 months

Proportion of all sales

XX

Lettings Market in

What is the average rent for a house?

per month

What is the average rent for a flat?

per month

Rents have changed by

in the last 12 months

What is the average rental yield?

gross annual yield

What is the average age of local residents?

How old are first-time buyers on average?

What price point marks the top 5%?