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Halifax report price growth in September was the largest since February 2007

  • main chart
  • Halifax and Rightmove both report increases in annual price growth in their September House Price Indices. Halifax records a monthly rise of 1.7%, taking the annual increase to 7.4%. They calculate the average price of a home to be £267,587. Rightmove records a smaller 0.3% rise in asking prices, taking annual growth to 5.8% and the average asking price to £338,462.

    The Halifax comment that September's growth was the largest since February 2007 and marked a reversal of the downward trend in annual growth of the previous three months, after a peak of 9.6% in May. Rightmove see prices entering a period of greater stability but note that the record low number of properties on the market means that competition amongst buyers remains "fierce".

    However, Rightmove believe that this very high level of demand is being counterbalanced to some extent by the end of the stamp duty holiday and growing issues of affordability. They predict that price stability may be further encouraged by an increase in the supply of properties coming on the market in the autumn. The first two weeks of September saw a 14% increase in the number of listings on their property portal compared to the last two weeks of August. They report that people who had hesitated about selling earlier in the year in an over-heated market, are now feeling more confident about joining a property market that appears to be retuning to a greater degree of normality. However, they note that increasing numbers of sellers are deciding to sell before they buy in order to place themselves in the strongest possible position.

    Whilst the Rightmove report looks at reasons for increased price stability, the Halifax report focuses on the reasons behind the continuing growth in annual house price inflation. They comment that any house sales agreed in September would have been too late to take advantage of the stamp duty incentives and look at other factors influencing the market. They point to the difference between annual price growth for flats (6.1%) and detached and semi-detached homes (8.8% and 8.9% respectively) as a sign that the 'race for space' remains a key driver in the property market, along with low borrowing costs and an improving job market.

    In Ealing house prices have seen very strong solid growth over the last five years. So much so that in 2020, 66 per cent of all transactions were valued above £500,000 and 18 per cent were valued over £1,000,000.

    Looking ahead, Halifax believe that house price growth over the remainder of the year will be largely determined by the supply of properties. Rightmove point out that stock levels can be increased to everyone's advantage if buyers strengthen their position by lining up a sale for their own property and arranging their finances before making an offer on a new property.

"In 2020, 66 per cent of all transactions were valued above £500,000 and 18 per cent were valued over £1,000,000."

chart 1

Index of sales over time

In this chart, we've compared sales levels for flats and houses in the last few years. Instead of looking at absolute numbers, we've indexed the rates. This means that flats and houses start at 100 at the start of the period and you can see how they've changed since, on an equal basis.

Prices by flats & houses over time

This chart shows how price of flats and houses in the local area have moved over the last ten years. Looking at the change in prices over the longer term avoids some of the volatility that would be seen if we were looking at changes in the short term.
chart 2
chart 3

The profile of tenure

The mix of tenure of properties is a substantial yardstick of the attributes of homes in a local market. One of the best parts of the planning system in the UK is that social housing is heavily mixed in with the private stock, so we don't get large geographical divides between people as is the case in urban France.

What’s going on in the market?

  • Average price for a home
    £
    in
  • How much have average prices changed?

    %
    in the last year
    %
    in the last 5 years

    What’s the average price per square foot?

    £ psf

    What’s the average price for a new home?

    £

Sales Market in

How many homes changed hands?

in the last year

Sales numbers have changed by

year-on-year

Average price in England & Wales

Average price in London

By property type Apartments Terraced Semi-detached Detached
 

Average price

Price change

last 12 months

Proportion of all sales

XX

Lettings Market in

What is the average rent for a house?

per month

What is the average rent for a flat?

per month

Rents have changed by

in the last 12 months

What is the average rental yield?

gross annual yield

What is the average age of local residents?

How old are first-time buyers on average?

What price point marks the top 5%?